The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
******FINAL PRE-ELECTION PREDICTIONS THREAD********
Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:28 PM Author: bossy piazza WHATCHU GOT?
I think Clinton will win with just over 300 EVs, probably her high is around 320, and 4-5% overall.
Senate split. Can't believe right now that Ron Johnson might actually beat Feingold. |
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:28 PM Author: gaped vivacious stage Trump with 270-280 ev (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31817643) |
 |
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:44 PM Author: cocky pit multi-billionaire (guy who lives in a USA with extra electoral votes) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31825177) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:42 AM Author: gaped vivacious stage ? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31850408) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:29 PM Author: Marvelous milky sound barrier juggernaut Clinton wins. Around 290 EV. Dems narrowly take Senate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31817645) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:31 PM Author: cyan becky Fuck it, going for broke
http://www.270towin.com/maps/woXnr |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:31 PM Author: crusty bawdyhouse Clinton 291 (with very marginal victories in FL and PA, showing the power of the "shy trumpmo"). Trump 247. A bear will then come on stage and eat the results. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31817670) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Stirring violent toaster will a recount be necessary in FL or PA? I guess at 293 you wouldn't quite need one in PA. I think a recount of PA and obsessive national attention to all voting irregularities there would turn up some real shady shit.
ps - if there is really a sizable shy trumpmo contingent, I don't see him losing FL. Just based on polls, 538 still has him winning there. he could still lose PA even with a 1-2% shy trumpmo contingent tho. |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:38 PM Author: crusty bawdyhouse Trump is not one to easily concede any defeat.
To your other point: I agree with you but I have a feeling the latino vote will be the strongest it's ever been and this will skew things. In Florida, Latino early voting is up 139% over the last election (but, to be fair, black early voting is down a bit). Trump permafucked the GOP with the fastest growing demographic in the country, which sucks for real conservatives who would rather bring them into the fold. |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:27 PM Author: Gold hospital dog poop I actually believe a decent % of latinos will vote Trump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819729) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:33 PM Author: Stirring violent toaster Trump wins through the his rust-belt surprise route, taking Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, and maybe Wisconsin, Maine, Minnesota. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31817696) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:34 PM Author: bateful circlehead I'm bad at predicting prole voting behavior, but gun to my head I say Clinton w 322. Just don't see Trump winning any of the swing states (except Ohio, if you want to count it as one). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31817711) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:35 PM Author: bossy piazza I can't figure out NC, NH, the ME district up for grabs, and FL is kooky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31817720) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:36 PM Author: bateful circlehead Don't see him winning NC NH or FL, and yeah ME I just put as split on that interactive map deal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31817730) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:38 PM Author: Drunken boltzmann patrolman Hillary wins by a wide margin. Trump does surprisingly well in the rust belt but not well enough to avoid defeat in the traditional battleground states. America keeps circling the drain to obsolescence. Hillary spends the next 4 years under constant attack from the right and gets nothing done. TT's life still shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31817756) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Tripping supple menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31818081) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 5:44 PM Author: turquoise school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31818336) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 7:32 PM Author: Anal diverse sex offender field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819283) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:24 PM Author: demanding national kitty cat Holy shit man I had no idea you still POASTED (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819710) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:44 PM Author: Soul-stirring Flesh Parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31825179) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Galvanic Alcoholic Pistol Brunch http://www.270towin.com/maps/woX89
Hillary +4.6 |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:58 PM Author: bossy piazza This is my "best case" HRC scenario. Maybe in some scenario she takes OH, but I think this is her ceiling. And would be about 5% nationally ahead. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31817933) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 7:37 PM Author: beta space I think so but one EV in Maine to Trump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819327) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:48 PM Author: Fragrant obsidian cruise ship http://www.270towin.com
Hillary wins with Obama margin from 2012 |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 4:49 PM Author: Galvanic Alcoholic Pistol Brunch wrong link, brother pumo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31817856) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 5:08 PM Author: Irate goal in life HRC WINS WITH 342 ECVS
DEMS TAKE SENATE WITH 51
DEMS ALMOST TAKE HOUSE
http://www.270towin.com/maps/k4k9P |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 5:19 PM Author: slimy locale Trump wins NH, NC, ME2
Clinton wins NV, FL
no surprises in PA, MI, AZ, etc.
which makes it 303-235
dems lose senate by a seat. do better than expected in the house and come just short of a majority despite winning with more of the popular vote than HRC got |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 5:32 PM Author: outnumbered brethren Interesting...if Dems don't get the senate, I don't see them even getting within 15 of a house majority. But who knows... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31818248) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 7:23 PM Author: slimy locale only 1/3rd of the senate seats are up for re-election and projecting a majority means they're win a bunch of previously republican spots
house just tracks closer to the generic ballot, which has favored the dems even when the race is closest. they'd have to win by >4% to get a majority of the seats though just because of districting |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 5:28 PM Author: outnumbered brethren What my head says:
Hillary will need to win the popular vote by more than 1.5% to win the electoral vote. And SHE will probably end up right around +1.75 to +2.5. SHE will win either NH, NV or FL but probably not more than two of those three. As a result, SHE will get between 275-295 EV. Senate 50-50.
What my heart says:
Hillary will win popular vote by a point. Trump will pull out FL, NV, NC, IA, OH as polls sort-of suggest. He'll also win NH, ME-2 and one of CO/MI/PA/ME/NM/WI to become 45th potus. |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:01 PM Author: Curious theater You have the HEART of a patriot and I endorse your prediction. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819519) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: bronze crawly area TRUMP 296 Crooked 242
http://www.270towin.com/maps/vxXX9 |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:12 PM Author: Vigorous home Reply Favorite Date: November 6th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: my dog is a bigger TRUMP fan than I am (MAGA!)
TRUMP 296 Crooked 242
http://www.270towin.com/maps/vxXX9
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31818328) |
|
Date: November 11th, 2016 9:28 AM Author: bronze crawly area Not bad, not bad at all. Just missed on NV, NH, and PA. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31879012) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 5:51 PM Author: lilac lay Best plausible outcome for Trump: http://www.270towin.com/maps/mbYpY
My personal guess: http://www.270towin.com/maps/24EYL
Worst plausible outcome: http://www.270towin.com/maps/r3YXJ |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 6:11 PM Author: outnumbered brethren Not to nitpick but in best possible outcome, Trump could definitely win Maine-2 and the state with Hillary winning Maine-1. Only changes by two votes, but juat sayin. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31818551) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: lilac lay LOL he'll nearly beat my best outcome for him. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31850503) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 6:43 PM Author: Disgusting corner new version Timetravellermo here.
On the morning of Election Day, the Lord God appeared in His glory to conservatives and neo-reactionaries. "Stand upon thy feet, my children," said the Lord, His voice booming from the firmament.
Shitlibs could not see or hear the spectacle.
But His Spirit entered us and set even the lame upon their feet. Light and haze surrounded His muscled Alpha Chad frame and His throne of lapis lazuli.
"Take shelter," said the Lord, "or you will be consumed in my righteous punishment of the Coasts and Cities. Flee for your lives; tell no shitlibs; or else you will be consumed."
The sun was risen upon the earth when /pol/ and Autoadmit and Mencius Moldbug took shelter.
But Moldbug's wife called Lena Dunham to tell her to take shelter, and both became pillars of salt.
Then the Lord rained upon the East and West Coasts sulfur and fire from the Lord out of heaven; and he overthrew Washington, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Chicago, and every other depraved place.
After a few hours, the Lord called us out of our hiding-places. We beheld God's work and saw the smoke of the Cities and Coasts went up as the smoke of a furnace.
"Do not make me give you the gay plague AIDS," said He, urging us to vote for Donald Trump.
His victory: http://www.270towin.com/maps/zG9B4 |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Curious theater Okay... this deserves AT LEAST one bump. 180 Sir. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819600) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 7:09 PM Author: pungent trailer park I predict this comes down to wire, recount in Florida or Ohio, Trump concedes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819046) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 7:19 PM Author: Racy box office Clinton 274 Trump 264
http://www.270towin.com/maps/3Rg3P
Dem +5 in the Senate (51-49 majority). Pick up PA, NH, IL, and WI. Between NC, MO, and IN, they pick up one.
GOP House. |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 7:24 PM Author: Claret queen of the night church building 269-269, election goes to the House (who pick Trump) Perrod wins the PowerDong |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 7:31 PM Author: hyperventilating wild messiness Most likely: http://www.270towin.com/maps/9B7Yj
Extremely high white turnout: http://www.270towin.com/maps/jKG6z
Hispanics break for Trump like the LA times thinks: http://www.270towin.com/maps/QBEKY
Extremely high white turnout + hispanics break for Trump like LA times thinks: http://www.270towin.com/maps/gBEo2
Least likely scenario but best media circus: http://www.270towin.com/maps/KjOOO
BONUS MAP: Rubio/Kasich vs HRC 2020: Open borders edition: http://www.270towin.com/maps/OeEmG
BONUS BONUS MAP: Dopey Mark Cuban vs Michelle Obama 2024: http://www.270towin.com/maps/gBERA |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 7:46 PM Author: sooty painfully honest locus People, please. This is what will happen:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/BOYBp
Trump 288 |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:14 PM Author: Gold hospital dog poop cr that's realistic
if he doesn't get FL or swap it w PA he could still win w WI and MI |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:15 PM Author: hyperventilating wild messiness swap MI and PA
i dont think it's possible for him to win MI but not PA |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:22 PM Author: Vigorous home Date: November 6th, 2016 7:46 PM Author: strong women
People, please. This is what will happen:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/BOYBp
Trump 288
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819395) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: tantric legal warrant meetinghouse Hillary gets around 330 and +5% (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819469) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 7:56 PM Author: Anal diverse sex offender field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819473) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 7:56 PM Author: indigo house black woman Trump with 300+ EV (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819476) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:14 PM Author: Vigorous home Date: November 6th, 2016 7:56 PM Author: animeboi
Trump with 300+ EV
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819476) |
|
Date: November 11th, 2016 9:26 AM Author: indigo house black woman tyft (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31878995) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Awkward Skinny Woman Ape Hilary with approx 300 EVs and +3-4% (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819503) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:43 PM Author: dun rigor Cosign (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31825166) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:49 PM Author: Up-to-no-good zippy state Sounds right (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31825212) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:42 AM Author: turquoise school looollllllllllllllllll (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31850431) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:40 PM Author: talented gas station (Done here) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31860052) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Cracking Striped Hyena Volcanic Crater :_(
Clinton wins comfortably by winning Florida and shocking in Ohio
Trump surprises with close losses in MI, PA and a win in NH, but is not close in NV, FL
GOP holds senate with 51 votes as they keep IN, MO, NC, NH
Hillary underperforms in the Northeast (but doesn't lose any EC votes besides ME-2) and wins states like CA with 70% of the vote |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:28 PM Author: hyperventilating wild messiness i dont think there's a chance he loses ohio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819736) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:29 PM Author: Awkward Skinny Woman Ape Cr. He wins OH & IA. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819748) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:33 PM Author: Cracking Striped Hyena Volcanic Crater :_(
Ohio has been underpolled recently and Dems know how to turn out the vote
Iowa has hated HRC since 2007, so that's different |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:23 PM Author: demanding national kitty cat Hillary brings home the bacon with something like 280-290 EV. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819701) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2016 8:26 PM Author: arousing lodge death wish Parkinson's bombshell story hits Clinton tomorrow, effectively ending her campaign. Trump finishes with 360+ EV's winning every swing state. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31819722) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:43 PM Author: dun rigor Lol. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31825172) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:43 PM Author: Up-to-no-good zippy state Hillary by 300 plus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31825173) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:43 PM Author: Jade Address Feces Hillary cheats her way to a win. Libs survey smoldering ruins (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31825174) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:47 PM Author: Soul-stirring Flesh Parlor this was a poast where i predicted a hillary EV win. later, i amended :) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:48 PM Author: cocky pit multi-billionaire I got it at Hill Dawg with 322 and Trump 216.
My 2nd guess would be Hill 307 and Trump 231. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:01 AM Author: slimy locale ljl not that I was right but lol at xo PREDICTING shit. most people here were more wrong than nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31849412) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:04 AM Author: slimy locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31849511) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:41 PM Author: talented gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31860058) |
|
Date: November 11th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: bronze crawly area So which one of us was the closest to being right? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31878859) |
|
Date: November 11th, 2016 9:26 AM Author: carmine hairraiser community account fucklaw sadly also explosive diarrhea. they had it spot on. also couple of other ppl
the worst prediction was that lib faggot ) who said Hillary will win Ohio. i can at least understand ppl who said hillary will win the election |
|
Date: November 11th, 2016 9:27 AM Author: indigo house black woman Uh, no. I predicted 300+ EV and was correct. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#31879004) |
|
Date: July 29th, 2025 6:18 PM Author: frum brindle digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#49141209) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2025 10:48 PM Author: acp (acp) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3413527&forum_id=2#49503582) |