\
  The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
BackRefresh Options Favorite

odds Republicans lose the house in November?

...
Amethyst ratface native
  03/15/18
65.27%
Dashing senate
  03/15/18
80% (and I'm a conservative) just hoping we hold senate
internet-worthy principal's office
  03/15/18
def not losing the senate
Dashing senate
  03/15/18
That's what people said in 2006 too and all the same seats a...
Stirring scarlet pocket flask
  03/15/18
Roy Moore wasn't just "shitty". He was an alleged ...
Dashing senate
  03/15/18
Plus there just aren't many Senate seats Dems can win. Texa...
internet-worthy principal's office
  03/15/18
how many seats were they defending in 2006 though?
Jade gaming laptop
  03/15/18
If McCain retires early due to health concerns (not that I'm...
thriller weed whacker institution
  03/15/18
Trump isn't THAT unpopular in Nevada, that's not a lock for ...
internet-worthy principal's office
  03/15/18
I didn't say it's a lock. But Heller is definitely the unde...
thriller weed whacker institution
  03/15/18
are you more confident in Nevada than Arizona?
internet-worthy principal's office
  03/15/18
of course. Nevada is a state that is slightly left of cente...
thriller weed whacker institution
  03/15/18
"he's one of the few honorable politicians left" ...
fuchsia range cuck
  03/15/18
ur insane if u think Trump and his national security people ...
Spectacular filthpig
  03/15/18
https://www.predictit.org/Market/2704/Which-party-will-contr...
Stirring scarlet pocket flask
  03/15/18
LJL at the comments on that site.
thriller weed whacker institution
  03/15/18
Near certainty Republicans lose the house. Democrats will...
underhanded navy haunted graveyard
  03/15/18
this sounds about right. at this point I'm assuming they lo...
internet-worthy principal's office
  03/15/18
that's probably what ends up happening. But I don't thi...
thriller weed whacker institution
  03/15/18
what we're learning is that Trump won many of these areas be...
internet-worthy principal's office
  03/15/18
Trump DID drain the swamp (of Republican house members).
Amethyst ratface native
  03/07/19
45% Dems lose House (for Nov. 2020)
Emerald Sound Barrier House
  03/07/19
tired of winning, actually
nyuug
  11/06/25


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:34 AM
Author: Amethyst ratface native



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609325)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:36 AM
Author: Dashing senate

65.27%

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609330)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:36 AM
Author: internet-worthy principal's office

80% (and I'm a conservative)

just hoping we hold senate

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609332)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:37 AM
Author: Dashing senate

def not losing the senate

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609335)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:48 AM
Author: Stirring scarlet pocket flask

That's what people said in 2006 too and all the same seats are up this year and the blue wave momentum feels even bigger this year than it was then. For example Alabama going blue even with a shitty GOP candidate was unthinkable in 2006.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609368)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:49 AM
Author: Dashing senate

Roy Moore wasn't just "shitty". He was an alleged child rapist. A lot of republicans didn't even show up to vote. Doesn't really seem like a representative example.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609373)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:56 AM
Author: internet-worthy principal's office

Plus there just aren't many Senate seats Dems can win. Texas? Cruz's opponent is anti-gun? Tennessee? Unless Blackburn molested a 14 year old boy, she's fine. they have Arizona and Nevada, they need both plus not losing any others. Possible yes, but not likely.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609412)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:54 AM
Author: Jade gaming laptop

how many seats were they defending in 2006 though?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609400)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:56 AM
Author: thriller weed whacker institution

If McCain retires early due to health concerns (not that I'm wishing that upon him, he's one of the few honorable politicians left) then Democrats could win 2 seats in Arizona and 1 in Nevada this cycle.

In wave years, all the close races tend to go for one party or the other. They're just need to hold onto the vast majority of their vulnerable seats. There is a viable path, though very narrow.

I think it's more likely that they net 50-60 house seats but the senate is a draw simply because they are defending so many.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609409)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:57 AM
Author: internet-worthy principal's office

Trump isn't THAT unpopular in Nevada, that's not a lock for the Dems.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609415)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:58 AM
Author: thriller weed whacker institution

I didn't say it's a lock. But Heller is definitely the underdog, particularly because Dems recruited a good candidate. I'd be surprised if he survived.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609424)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 3:09 AM
Author: internet-worthy principal's office

are you more confident in Nevada than Arizona?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609462)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 3:13 AM
Author: thriller weed whacker institution

of course. Nevada is a state that is slightly left of center while Arizona is a state that is slightly right of center.

both states are inelastic, meaning it is all about who turns out, very few swing voters. democrats are fired up to turn out. this makes Nevada more favorable to democrats than Arizona because they are a greater share of the electorate.

I think Democrats will win both states though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609473)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 3:04 AM
Author: fuchsia range cuck

"he's one of the few honorable politicians left"

lol, however the fuck did you develop THAT impression? from his insane neocon warmongering? from his womanly bitchiness and fits of pique toward trump? from his role in the keating 5 scandal?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609443)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 3:05 AM
Author: Spectacular filthpig

ur insane if u think Trump and his national security people aren't hawks/neocons.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609448)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:38 AM
Author: Stirring scarlet pocket flask

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2704/Which-party-will-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609338)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:58 AM
Author: thriller weed whacker institution

LJL at the comments on that site.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609419)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 3:01 AM
Author: underhanded navy haunted graveyard

Near certainty Republicans lose the house.

Democrats will net half the seats they need out of California (huge anti-Trump backlash) and Pennsylvania (gerrymandered districts thrown out) alone.

That leaves them needing only 12 more seats. They could win those simply in districts Hillary won last time (i.e., UMC suburban swing districts).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609436)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 3:11 AM
Author: internet-worthy principal's office

this sounds about right. at this point I'm assuming they lose the house, I'm hoping it's not by THAT much, and that they keep the senate

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609465)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 3:16 AM
Author: thriller weed whacker institution

that's probably what ends up happening.

But I don't think Democrats will just barely take back the house. They're going to win 30 seats minimum, but probably more.

Saccone's failure to win an ultra-republican district after Trump and family made numerous campaign visits in the last couple of weeks shows how weak the Republican brand is right now. The immediate consequences = more Republican retirements. Further eroding their chances.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609483)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 3:20 AM
Author: internet-worthy principal's office

what we're learning is that Trump won many of these areas because Hillary was just that much worse. but when local Dems nominate a candidate to fit the district, anything can happen. My hope is that many of the R's that lose are of the moderate variety.

PA-18 wasn't really ultra-Republican. it has a Democratic registration advantage, but is an area where the national Democratic party gets no traction.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#35609489)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2019 11:19 PM
Author: Amethyst ratface native

Trump DID drain the swamp (of Republican house members).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#37896078)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 7th, 2019 11:19 PM
Author: Emerald Sound Barrier House

45% Dems lose House (for Nov. 2020)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#37896082)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2025 9:46 PM
Author: nyuug (Gangnam WGWAG Playboy)

tired of winning, actually

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2#49408928)