The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
I feel dumb that I don't understand the "21" movie's game theory hypo - video
Poast new message in this thread
Date: June 26th, 2026 10:53 AM Author: German pumo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYyUuIXzGgI&t=68s
At what IQ level does this make sense? Seems like once the goat is revealed in one of the three doors, it would be 50/50 whether the car was in one of the two remaining doors or the other.
But apparently not- really smart bros say it makes sense to change your guess:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vRUxbzJZ9Y |
Date: June 26th, 2026 10:54 AM Author: witching hour laundry service they got it wrong in the movie
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem |
 |
Date: June 26th, 2026 10:59 AM Author: German pumo This makes me feel better:
Many readers of Savant's column refused to believe switching is beneficial and rejected her explanation. After the problem appeared in Parade, approximately 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhDs, wrote to the magazine, most of them calling Savant wrong.[4] Even when given explanations, simulations, and formal mathematical proofs, many people still did not accept that switching is the best strategy.[5] Paul Erdős, one of the most prolific mathematicians in history, remained unconvinced until he was shown a computer simulation demonstrating Savant's predicted result.
- end quote -
If this only makes sense at extreme IQ levels, it's one of the best tests for such extreme IQs that I've seen. I simply don't get it, even as explained in your Wiki link. |
|
Date: June 26th, 2026 11:02 AM Author: witching hour laundry service an easy shorthand for this is you initially select a door without any information = 1/3 chance
then he opens one door with a goat so now you are making a choice knowing it's 50/50 which is better than 1/3 |
|
Date: June 26th, 2026 6:22 PM Author: Bow tie niggas always have very strong opinions No, in a three door scenario you go from 33% to 66%. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2#49964563) |
|
Date: June 26th, 2026 8:09 PM Author: imagine if the races were reversed It's fairly straightforward and if you don't get it you probably just never will. Do you find poker and stock market investing either uninteresting or excessively capricious? Then you're just not wired for this type of thinking (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2#49964786) |
|
Date: June 27th, 2026 8:27 AM Author: Melancholic Personality Archetypes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2#49965230) |
|
Date: June 27th, 2026 8:59 AM Author: Taylor Swift is not a hobby she is a lifestyle (🇺🇸 🇵🇱) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2#49965254) |
|
Date: June 27th, 2026 8:20 AM Author: artificial intelligence It’s only confusing because the “problem” has a hidden premise: that the door removed is always empty, so the one that remains has a 50/50 shot of being a winner rather than a 1/3rd shot. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2#49965226) |
|
Date: June 26th, 2026 11:29 AM Author: wait till biggus dickus hears of this Not game theory (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2#49963997) |
|
Date: June 26th, 2026 6:04 PM Author: nig coffeehouse spotify songs Originally, u get a 1/3
On the 2nd pick "switch" u get a 1/2
Ur insane if u dont change it to a 50/50 by changing doors, ur basically assuming u won a 1/3 off the bat (insane)
just switch |
|
Date: June 26th, 2026 7:07 PM Author: indian man, alone, thinking a lot about apecock your math is wrong but you are right you should switch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2#49964642) |
|
Date: June 26th, 2026 7:09 PM Author: Bow tie niggas always have very strong opinions (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2#49964646) |
|
Date: June 26th, 2026 7:16 PM Author: nig coffeehouse spotify songs ? its two doors its a 50/50 on the 2nd go lol at libs |
|
Date: June 26th, 2026 7:24 PM Author: John Frum the complement of a 1/3 outcome is 2/3 friend imagine if there was one goat in 100 doors and the tv host opened 98 empty ones |
|
Date: June 26th, 2026 7:31 PM Author: nig coffeehouse spotify songs libs are insane u already wana import 100 illegial alien doors into the hypo im shutting this shit down (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2#49964717) |
|
Date: June 26th, 2026 7:34 PM Author: John Frum well we need to hide the goats so pakis can't furk them (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2#49964724) |
|
Date: June 26th, 2026 7:29 PM Author: Bow tie niggas always have very strong opinions No, it's 66%.
The way the Monty Hall problem is explained to people that can't understand it is if there were a 100 doors and the host closed 98, switching becomes obvious because you know you only had a 1% chance of picking correctly initially. But if that was still only 50/50 it makes no sense why 100 doors is such an obvious switch. With 100 doors you intuitively understand that switching is a far greater chance that switching is superior to staying (99%). The same is true with 3 doors. |
|
Date: June 26th, 2026 8:54 PM Author: Gay Grandpa Now. How low is your iq if you still dont understand? |
|
Date: June 27th, 2026 8:27 AM Author: Melancholic Personality Archetypes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877551&forum_id=2#49965228) |